Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

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Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:26 pm

Hey all,

Would appreciate some advice as regards div4.

Starting my third season in it. I lucked out and avoided relegation last time out because a decent club in my league went bot and I think I'm probably too good for the majority of div 5 playoff teams. However - I am not under any illusions that it'll be tough to survive in the league I'm in:
http://www.blackoutrugby.com/game/club.league.php#page=standings&id=135085

All Black and Blues, The Eclipse, Roundwood, Oakley Raiders and Guildfordians will likely be too strong for me looking at their average strength of player, to hope for anything from other than, with a following wind and them saving energy for next week, a losing bonus at home.

Mud Blood and Green and Flitwick look like teams I could take points off or even beat, though, given the right conditions and a following wind.

So here's my questions;
- Should I play all 4 of the games against the two weakers sides LTNT? Or is it worth trying to save some energy against what I perceive to be the weaker one - this matchup looks favourable, but it's way from home:
http://www.blackoutrugby.com/game/tools.live.scoring.php#fixture=9610773

- What do I do in the other games - should I just play all the away games WNWIM so I save as much energy as possible for the crunch matches? I'm not sure of the effect of energy really, but I'm nervous about it as last time out I lost a game against a very poor team that I expected to beat near the end of the season, and I think it's because I'd been gambling to play up against better sides to sneak a result on LTNT...

Lastly - I will probably pull through 4 or 5 youth players this season as I have some decent talent in there. I'm sure I read somewhere that playing all my youth matches on LTNT was the best way to develop players - is that correct? By the end of this season I actually expect to be in a decent position to stay in this league, provided I can manage it, as I will have good young talent at every position getting stronger and more experience with each season passing. So I am prepared to just do everything I can to stay up.

Any advice would, as ever, be appreciated...

Cheers fellas

mattjair

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by Raggs on Thu Nov 15, 2012 5:16 pm

Mud, blood and green definite target.

Flitwick may be a target, watch him. He barely logs in, makes him a definite target.

You have Mud blood first right? Looking at past reporters summaries, you may have a good chance, got to go for it regardless. Then WNWIM, then TNT vs Flitwick (only seems to play normal, so that's good). Then I'd say go for Oakley raiders. Seems a bit like a crazy move, but I say go for them, and then in round 10 do it again, then take a pop at whoever you have in round 14 as well.
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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:29 pm

Alright - thanks for the help!

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by jimjam_w on Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:13 pm

Youth matches - play them all LTNT, your youths get more development. I think I only bottomed out at around 57-60% Energy last season playing all my YA matches on TNT. Rotate if you have to, maybe try to give everyone one game rest if your energy is bombing

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:46 pm

Amused by this...

I'm the coach of mud, blood and green - and after sketchy scouting I had you picked as someone I'd have real trouble with.

And then picked the wrong tactics, and somehow picked my hooker at wing... Good win, sir - you're doing a Shimmy load better than I am.

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by quind on Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:04 am

I wonder did you say Shimmy, or is that another Raggsian correction?

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:29 am

...it wasn't my exact word, no. ;-)

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:43 am

Heh - what's the chances of a couple of us being in the same div...Smile Was a good start to the season for me so I appreciate your player position experimenting...Smile

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:55 am

Pleasure. ;-)

_I'm_ a crap Div IV club: your team averages 2/3 a point higher than mine across the lineup..

FWIW, when I scouted the league before we started, I had you down as ending the season 4th. Good luck!

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Sat Dec 08, 2012 12:20 pm

Thanks - you obviously didn't see how I played last season, then...Smile I'm only still up because a good team went bot.

All Black and Blues, The Eclipse are both ace and play regularly. The Roundwood manager isn't on often so I wonder if he's losing interest and may go bot - either way, he has a very solid team so probably won't struggle. Those three teams are way out.

I've never beaten Oakley Raiders or Guildfordians and I'd need to sort them both out to finish 4th so I think you're optimistic - I tend to base most of my assumption on the quality of their players and they both have squad averages significantly higher than me. That's how I felt I might have a chance at turning you over. Oakley have about twice as much experience, also. In my mind, they're a dead cert for fourth.

I reckon, given the decent start, I should be able to do 5th or 6th - today's result will determine which - if I beat Guildfordians at home then I've a bit of a crack. And I'll do as Raggs suggested and have a crack early on while I've got some fitness...Very Happy

Good luck, fella - hope you can hang on in there. My best advice after my firsts season up would be - don't over-extend your best players - keep them fit and use them in the games you've a chance to win. I thought I'd do OK against everyone last year and kept getting smashed. Not enough focus...


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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by quind on Sat Dec 08, 2012 12:27 pm

mattjair wrote:My best advice after my firsts season up would be - don't over-extend your best players - keep them fit and use them in the games you've a chance to win. I thought I'd do OK against everyone last year and kept getting smashed.

If you do this as soon as you're not going to finish 7th, and if you can't finish 4th or higher, play your best team for the future and TNT every game. Changes of losing a qualifier are remote, so max the exp and IGT as there'll be no need to conserve energy once 6th or higher is secured.

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:17 pm

mattjair wrote:In my mind, they're a dead cert for fourth.

Oh, I dunno... I don't rate'em quite that highly.... ;-)


Last edited by harrytc on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:19 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : another post got in.. added quote to make sense...)

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:20 pm

quind wrote:
mattjair wrote:My best advice after my firsts season up would be - don't over-extend your best players - keep them fit and use them in the games you've a chance to win. I thought I'd do OK against everyone last year and kept getting smashed.

If you do this as soon as you're not going to finish 7th, and if you can't finish 4th or higher, play your best team for the future and TNT every game. Changes of losing a qualifier are remote, so max the exp and IGT as there'll be no need to conserve energy once 6th or higher is secured.

Good advice, cheers.

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:31 pm

Well that was a pretty good day for us both. Looks like your scouting is better than mine!

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:34 pm

mattjair wrote:Well that was a pretty good day for us both. Looks like your scouting is better than mine!

...I think I was just lucky, to be honest.

But yes - happy days!


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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:39 pm

Hey,

So - solid start to the season for me with a couple of potentially unexpected wins - not least the last one against Guildfordians who are surpriseingly bottom...
http://www.blackoutrugby.com/game/club.league.php#page=standings&id=135085

Next game is one that I definitely didn't have pegged to win - he's an active manager, his average CSR is much higher than mine, etc - but with the start I've had I feel like I might as well go for it - nothing ventured, etc...

However - the heroics have left most of my stars short of energy. And I have a reasonably balanced squad so in 4 or 5 positions, I can put in a replacement who is similar to the starter - but at this point, some 40-50 percent fitter...

How important is energy? Am I better off playing my very best players, though tired (his squad has higher stamina on average and higher energy currently), or am I better off trying to inject a bit of energy, notably into the pack and midfield?

Any thoughts or advice would be very welcome!

Cheers

Matt

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by quind on Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:47 am

I'd think your better players are still your better players having just a quick look. CSR gap is enough to suggest higher energy won't bridge the gap

If you can't beat All Black and Blue and Eclipse and are going to wnwim then you may as well TNT this match any which way. You'll still be back in business for R8

Just one point if Eclipse continue to splurge their energy (do they always TNT per chance?) you'll be able to take them with decent energy levels. if so I might not go TNt this weekend, as just one round to rest and then have Eclipse, Mud Blood and Roundwood on successive weekends is a lot

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by Basil on Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:35 am

Mud Blood will TNT I expect Wink

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:01 pm

Haha Basil - what makes you think that...Wink

Eclipse, as far as I can see, always LTNT - they're basically safe in the division but not good enough to go up so I think they're trying to max experience.

Feels to me like the best way to go is to look ahead to the games I think I have a legitimate chance to win and make sure I succeed tghere, rather than gambling on stuff that's not going to be straightforward or may not come off - so:

Oakley (away) - don't gamble. WNWIM, rest stars.
All Black and Blue (away) - no chance - WNWIM, rest stars.
Eclipse (home) - Not overextend this season - WNWIM, rest stars.
Mud Blood and Green (home) - LTNT (sorry Harry...Smile), winnable.
Roundwood (home)- WNWIM as it's a gamble.
Flitwick (away) - LTNT, winnable.
Guildfordians (away) - LTNT - winnable.
Oakley (home) - least winnable of the 3 game stretch vs FLitwick, Guildfordians - see how my players are, but lowerst priority. Maybe LTNT.
All Black and Blue (home) - WNWIM, no need to worry about this game.
Eclipse (away) - LTNT as it's last game of the season.

Should mean that when I get to Flitwick, Guildfordians, Oakley that my players are in good nick if I follow this, right?

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by quind on Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:01 pm

no need for 3 wnwim in a row, bung at least one normal in there. you'll still recover energy just fine and get more exp doing it

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:53 pm

I figured I'd only do that as they're already pretty low after the first 4 weeks... (mid-60's for my key starters)... do we know how much they recover in a week if they don't play at all or if they only play on WNWIM?

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by Wingnut on Sat Dec 15, 2012 8:09 am

wnwim instead of tnt will reduce expenditure by about 15%

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:14 pm

thanks

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by harrytc on Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:10 pm

mattjair wrote:
Mud Blood and Green (home) - LTNT (sorry Harry...Smile), winnable.

Surely, a team of your quality could beat my rabble playing WNWIM... ;-)

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Re: Season 17 strategy for a crap Div 4 club...

Post by mattjair on Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:14 pm

So Harry and I played out our much anticipated clash - and it was a good one!

But the shock result in my league was definitely this one:
http://www.blackoutrugby.com/game/tools.live.scoring.php#fixture=9610799&report=1

Roundwood, despite having a manager that never logs on and playing all their games normal, somehow managed to turn over a very high quality opponent in The Eclipse - who I think will be promotion candidates this season (via a playoff) - and have been one of the better teams in the league for a while.

By all accounts, their players are worse, they never LTNT, they've come a cropper in some stinking results this season - and then, this...

I'm trying to look at the stats and see why, and where they were beaten. All I can see is that they consistently play a very low quality #1 and #15, but their #4, #7, #9 and #10 are good - much better than anything I can put out.

The Eclipse dominated Scrum, Lineout but were perhaps limited in Attack - lots of Pick and Go and Driving whereas their opponent was more balanced.... so not much by way of clues for me on how to beat Roundwood.

They seemed to be having a poor season but this result is a good one for them. And I'm not sure how to go at them. Any thoughts or information would be much appreciated!

Cheers

Matt

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